By The Numbers: Adepticon 2019
By Chris Fretts
Flames of War Late War Nationals was held on Saturday March 30th, 2019 at Adepticon in Schaumburg, IL (Northwest of Chicago). For mission selections, the More Missions Packet was used. This Article will look at the Mission Mix, and the out comes by Attacker and Defender in those Missions.
Tournament Format
- Era: Late War
- Points: 1625pts.
- Rounds: 4
- Time per round: 2 hours 15 minutes
- Pairings: Straight Swiss
- Mission: Battle Plans using the More Missions Packet. The Tournament Organizer rolled a die and all tables used that roll in the Mission Matrix. No die role number was repeated.
Breakdown of Forces
| Tank | 17 | 34% |
| Mechanized | 9 | 18% |
| Infantry | 24 | 48% |
| Allies: Western | 23 | 46% |
| Allies: Eastern | 8 | 16% |
| Axis | 19 | 38% |
| US | 14 | 28% |
| German | 14 | 28% |
| Soviet | 8 | 16% |
| British | 8 | 16% |
| Hungarian | 2 | 4% |
| Finns | 2 | 4% |
| Romanian | 1 | 2% |
| Canadian/US | 1 | 2% |
Stance Selection
Overall Attack and Defend Stances were chosen about equally by the players with about half the number of the others choosing the Maneuver Stance.
Number
| Stance Selected | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Totals |
| Attack | 19 | 22 | 21 | 21 | 83 |
| Maneuver | 11 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 31 |
| Defend | 18 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 79 |
| Unknown | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| Totals | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 200 |
Percent
| Stance Selected | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Totals |
| Attack | 38% | 44% | 42% | 42% | 42% |
| Maneuver | 22% | 12% | 10% | 18% | 16% |
| Defend | 36% | 40% | 44% | 38% | 40% |
| Unknown | 4% | 4% | 4% | 2% | 4% |
Missions Played
The More Missions Packet was used for Mission Selection. Once Players had chosen their Stance, Attack, Maneuver or Defend, a single die was rolled by the TO and all tables used that die roll in the Mission Matrix. This meant that a limited number of Missions were played each Round based on that number and the Player’s Stances chosen.
| Missions Played | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Total |
| Breakthrough | 20 | 1 | 21 | ||
| Bridgehead | 4 | 4 | |||
| Contact | 3 | 3 | |||
| Counterattack | 5 | 5 | |||
| Dust Up | 1 | 9 | 10 | ||
| Encounter | 1 | 2 | 3 | ||
| Free For All | 10 | 6 | 1 | 17 | |
| Hasty Attack | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| No Retreat | 4 | 6 | 10 | ||
| Rearguard | 10 | 15 | 25 | ||
| Round Totals | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 100 |
Wins by Mission
Players did record their Stances for each Round so in most cases I was able to determine whether the Attacker or Defender in the Mission was the Winner. In certain Match-ups either the Stance was not recorded for one or both, or both Players chose the same Stance so they would have rolled off to see who was the Attacker. I was not able to discern whether the Attacker or Defender won in that case so they are listed as “Unknown” Wins. It was also not possible to determine Attacker/Defender Winners in the Fair Fight games of Free For All, Encounter and Dust-up as there is no clear Attacker or Defender.
It should be noted that one player was using an older version of the More Missions packet as the Hasty Attack Mission is no longer part of the pack and was replaced by the Contact Mission
With only 2 hour and 15 minutes of playing time, only 16 of the 100 games played ended in a Time Out/Draw.
In those Games where an Attacker or Defender Win could be determined, it seems like the numbers were similar with a possible slight advantage to the Defender especially in the Breakthrough Mission.
| Wins by Mission | Attacker Wins | Defender Wins | Unknown Win | Draw | Total Played |
| Breakthrough | 6 | 10 | 3 | 2 | 21 |
| Bridgehead | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Contact | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Counterattack | 3 | 2 | 5 | ||
| Dust Up | 8 | 2 | 10 | ||
| Encounter | 2 | 1 | 3 | ||
| Free For All | 15 | 2 | 17 | ||
| Hasty Attack | 1 | 1 | 2 | ||
| No Retreat | 3 | 4 | 3 | 10 | |
| Rearguard | 11 | 11 | 3 | 25 | |
| Totals | 25 | 30 | 29 | 16 | 100 |
| Wins by Stance | Round 1 Wins | Round 2 Wins | Round 3 Wins | Round 4Wins | Total Wins |
| Attack | 5 | 13 | 7 | 8 | 33 |
| Maneuver | 4 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| Defend | 10 | 5 | 12 | 8 | 35 |
| Unknown | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | |
| Total | 21 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 84 |
Wins per Stance chosen was about proportional to the number that Stance was chosen.
| Winning % By Stance Selected | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Total % Wins |
| Attack | 26% | 59% | 33% | 38% | 40% |
| Maneuver | 36% | 17% | 40% | 56% | 39% |
| Defend | 56% | 25% | 55% | 42% | 44% |
Winning % By Stance Selected Formula: Wins for Stance Chosen / Total Each Stance Chosen per Round
| % of Wins of Total Wins | Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Totals |
| Attack | 24% | 68% | 32% | 36% | 39% |
| Maneuver | 19% | 5% | 9% | 23% | 14% |
| Defend | 48% | 26% | 55% | 36% | 42% |
% of Wins of Total Wins Formula: Wins by each Stance / Total Wins per Round
Wins by Nationality – 84 Total Wins
| Nationality | Wins | Percent |
| German | 22 | 26% |
| British | 20 | 24% |
| US | 18 | 21% |
| Soviet | 16 | 19% |
| Hungarian | 4 | 5% |
| Finns | 2 | 2% |
| Can/US | 1 | 1% |
| Romanian | 1 | 1% |
Wins by Force Type – 84 Total Wins
| Force Type | Wins | Percent |
| Infantry | 45 | 54% |
| Armor | 22 | 26% |
| Mechanized | 17 | 20% |
Top Ten Finishers by Force Type
| Force Type | Wins | Percent |
| Infantry | 5 | 50% |
| Mechanized | 3 | 30% |
| Armor | 2 | 20% |
Top Ten Finishers by Force Nationality
| Nationality | Wins | Percent |
| British | 4 | 40% |
| German | 2 | 20% |
| Soviet | 2 | 20% |
| US | 2 | 20% |
Observations
British Forces did very well based on 4 of the 8 players finishing in the Top Ten.
The Shorter 2:15 Rounds only saw 16 of the 100 games played finished in a Timeout/Draw.
Mission outcomes seemed pretty balanced between Attacker/Defender Wins.
Infantry, Mechanize and Armor Forces won games relatively proportional to their numbers.
Percentage of Wins based of Stance Chosen was relatively proportional to percentage of that Stance being Chosen.
OK, discuss!
Chris Fretts has been playing Flames of War since 2009. Five times Masters Player and three times Battle Rankings Season Points Champion ( 2015, 2016 & 2018). He is the designer and builder of “Fretts Boxes”, a FOW Tournament Tray and Carryall. Chris is also the Organizer for Flames of War and Team Yankee Events for his gaming group, Able Kompanie. He lives in Indianapolis, Indiana with his wife, Claire, and their two cats, Wesley and Buttercup.